June ended up being a crazier month than even I expected. I'm almost out of the woods, but I wanted to send a couple posts while I push through this final deadline. I'm being cryptic right now, but I will share more. I've got plenty of updates. Good updates, but anytime there's a lot going on, life has tended to be stressful. Almost there!
Now, to basketball for this post: we now have our two finalists in the NBA: the Phoenix Suns and the Milwaukee Bucks. I truly could not be happier. I think the Suns are an excellent feel-good story, narrowly escaping the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round (remember when it was actually predicted that LA would win?), and then beating the crosstown Los Angeles Clippers two rounds later? (That series ended up being closer than I expected.) Then on the other side, Milwaukee beat Brooklyn. It wasn't egos that derailed Brooklyn's championship run; it was injuries. By the end of the series, the only superstar still standing on the Nets was Kevin Durant. Right after I posted my previous predictions post, James Harden went down with a hamstring injury. He did come back later in the series, but he was playing on one leg and a shell of himself. A mere few days after Harden went down, Kyrie Irving went down also, and didn't come back.
Injuries have played the biggest role this year. It makes sense. You look at the date: normally in the NBA cycle, by the time we reach July 4th, the NBA finals have been done for at least a few weeks, and the draft has also already happened. Normally by this time, the league is in that weird "moratorium" where free agent players can begin negotiating with any team regarding signing their next contract, but are still yet a few days away from being able to actually sign them. But, because of how COVID-19 and all related restrictions wracked the previous season (2019-2020), this season didn't start until Christmas, a mere two months (or less?) after the previous season concluded. That's two months later than a season normally starts (it usually begins at the end of October), and yet it was still a quick turnaround. As such, injuries have dominated and taken out every team. To wit:
1.) the Los Angeles Lakers lost both LeBron James and Anthony Davis both for much of the regular season and then again in the playoffs. They lost in the first round.
2.) the Brooklyn Nets (like I wrote a couple paragraphs ago) lost both James Harden and Kyrie Irving during the season and again in the playoffs. They lost to Milwaukee in the second round, albeit by the hair of their chinny-chin-chin. (Or more accurately, a clutch shot that Durant made at the end of regulation in Game 7 that tied the game instead of gave the Nets the lead, because Durant was wearing extra-large shoes (for him) and his toe was on the three-point line. Later, in overtime, Durant again had the opportunity to make a game (and series) winning shot, only for it to airball it as time expired.)
3.) the Philadelphia 76ers lost their star player, Joel Embiid, early in the second round. He did return a couple games later but was still a shell of himself, as the 76ers ceded the series to the Atlanta Hawks, who...
4.) ...lost Trae Young for a couple games in the third round against the Milwaukee Bucks. Like with Embiid, Young came back after sitting out a couple games but was not anywhere his near 100% self. And they lost to a Milwaukee Bucks squad, who...
5.)... themselves lost Giannis Antetokounmpo to a hyperextended knee, who sat out the remainder of the series, and whose status for the NBA Finals is currently up in the air.
6.) Remember how I said that the series between the Suns and the Clippers was closer than I expected? That's because the Clippers similarly lost Kawhi Leonard early in the series, while the Suns were pretty much at full strength (asterisk, more on that in a minute). The series was closer than I expected because Paul George played out of his mind for two (or three) games. Mercifully, Phoenix (and specifically Chris Paul) took care of business. That's miraculous because even Chris Paul admitted he wasn't 100%. A good thing that Phoenix beat the Clippers a few days before Milwaukee closed out Atlanta, so as to allow him to rest his hand. But, that's interesting, because...
7.) Paul was apparently much more banged up throughout the playoffs than we realized. The aforementioned asterisk about Phoenix being at full strength is simply that Paul tested positive for COVID ahead of the Clippers series, and missed the first two or three games. And I'm hearing him say he was still banged up, even after all that rest? I will say therefore that it is a testament to his work and his game, because, unlike literally every other superstar and star that got injured, Paul was the only one who could a.) play through his injury, and 2.) not let it affect his game one bit.
There may be other injuries that occurred, but these were the ones that swung the playoff picture. I thought it interesting just a few days ago, after Phoenix closed out the Clippers but Milwaukee and Atlanta were still battling it out, albeit without Antetokounmpo and Young, respectively, that this must be what it was like to follow the NBA in the 1970s, before Larry Bird and Magic Johnson came on the scene, and forever changed the trajectory of how champions were made. Since 1980, almost all champion teams won many and not just one championship. The Showtime Lakers and Bird's Celtics dominated the 1980s. The Bulls dominated the 90s. (The Rockets got a bite in the mid-90s, and the Bad Boy Pistons got their bite at the turn of the decade.) The first decade of the 21st century was dominated by the Lakers and the Spurs. And then in the 2010s the teams that won were typically whatever team LeBron James was on, or the Golden State Warriors. Sure, we've had a few smatterings of one-time champions here and there (2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2019), but that's pretty much it. However, even those champions beat teams in the final round that themselves had won. That's not the case this time. Looking back in the 1970s, teams like the Washington Bullets, Portland Trail Blazers, Seattle SuperSonics, and New York Knicks, all got a championship apiece (I think Seattle won twice).
So it's now Phoenix and Milwaukee. It's really too bad Antetokounmpo is out. He really may not come back to play in the Finals at all. This to me gives the edge to Phoenix. Then again, Paul finally winning his first championship would make for an excellent story. The guy has been in the NBA for 16 years, and never previously gotten past the second round in the playoffs. Or, perhaps Milwaukee's supporting cast can pull it together even more and win Milwaukee's first title since a young Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was there, back in (you guessed it) the 1970s.
Following my previous pattern of predictions, I'm picking the Suns to win, in six games, due to Antetokounmpo sitting out the entire series. I'm also getting tired of seeing great players drop like flies due to injuries. Nonetheless, a great story.
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