Another rare post: sports is a topic I will occasionally talk about, but not something I can afford to keep track of a lot. Mostly these days, I'm kept in the loop via a three-way email conversation with two friends from college who themselves follow different sports. This season, we have engaged in multiple threads about the current NBA season, and now including the playoffs.
To catch you up to speed: for the playoffs, we each made our own predictions, specifically for the first round. The first round is all but complete (as of the writing of this post, one series still has not resolved). But what intrigued me was (and not to toot my own horn) how in a few of the series where I predicted differently from my friends, my predictions came up correct. A lot of what goes into what I look for in a series is not simply the raw numbers, but also the human element. For example, I predicted that the Phoenix Suns would defeat the Los Angeles Lakers in one series. The reason I gave was examining the potential severity of current injuries to three of the top players in that series: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Chris Paul. While allowing that the series could've swung either way, depending on how the injuries played out for each player in terms of how each one could affect the series, I stated my concern that the injuries to the Lakers' stars would be a bigger blow to them compared with injuries to the Suns' star. Lo and behold, that's exactly how things played out.
In another series, I predicted, also differently from my two friends, that the Atlanta Hawks would defeat the New York Knicks. The examination I gave was different, but similar in one way: it was different because you had one team that was a hard-working, feel-good story (the Knicks), playing another with a transcendent superstar in the making (the Hawks). I argued that, based on what I've seen time and time again, all other factors being equal, talent wins hands down. The aspect that was similar was, like the Suns' transcendent superstar in the making (Devin Booker), the Hawks' transcendent superstar in the making (Trae Young) were both hungry and ready to stop losing and start winning. In both series, both Booker and Young showed up, big time.
Almost all of the other series, I agreed with my friends, and the results played out like we expected.
So now it's on to the next round. The series of interest to me is the clash of the titans in the East: Brooklyn vs. Milwaukee. Brooklyn boasts an all-time big three that rivals other big threes, namely the one in Miami just a decade ago. While tempered due to my attitude on sports on the whole changing, I still feel a small moral resentment towards Brooklyn's big three. That said, in a different email thread with my two sports-minded friends, I predicted that the Nets would win the championship. They're just too talented not to. And the history of basketball (the NBA in particular, but I've seen it elsewhere also) tells me that the team with the most number of transcendent stars/superstars have won the vast majority of the championships. The NBA continues to be defined by dynasties and mini-dynasties. Since 1979, when both Larry Bird and Magic Johnson entered the NBA, almost every champion was a team that won several championships and boasted the game's best stars at the time. Whether it was Bird, Johnson, Isiah Thomas (I am including the "Bad Boy" Pistons as a mini-dynasty), Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Tim Duncan, Shaquille O'neal, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, or Kevin Durant, the best starts won the championships. The only blips that I can think of off the top of my head include the 2004 Detroit Pistons (the Lakers self-destructed in the Finals that year), the 2008 Boston Celtics (I hate to call them this, because they too had transcendent stars that were almost as good as Duncan and Bryant, but then again, they only won once), the 2011 Dallas Mavericks (LeBron self-destructed in that year's Finals), and the 2019 Toronto Raptors (Kawhi Leonard's best year of his career, combined with the Golden State Warriors all getting injured one right after another, all in the Finals).
All that aside, I'm still picking Brooklyn to win (as much as I don't want them to). Articles ask who will guard Giannis Antetokounmpo. I ask: who can guard all three of Kyrie Irving, James Harden, or Durant? My thought is to have Durant guard Antetokounmpo. Giannis will still get his points, and Durant will have to work, but he doesn't have to shoulder the offensive load this series. For this matchup, defending Antetokounmpo is job #1 for him. This series is Harden's time to shine, to pull out all the bag of tricks that he showcased at his previous employer, the Houston Rockets. No one on Milwaukee will stop him. I predict the Nets will win in six games.
As for the other series, I'm picking Atlanta, Utah, and Phoenix to win and advance. As for the Final matchup, I predict it will be Brooklyn over either Utah or Phoenix (it won't matter who). The team with the most talent (especially by far) wins almost all the time. The only team stopping Brooklyn is themselves and their egos. The championship is theirs to lose this year.